Success and Failure tied into one?
Over the last several years, Grand Canyon University (GCU) Men's Basketball has been known as the pinnacle of not only Western Athletic Conference (WAC) Men's Basketball, but also what could be for Mid-Majors alike. Coming into the season, this team had Top 25 aspirations, 3-Peat WAC Tournament Champs, and hopes of making their first Sweet 16.
We are officially sixteen games into the season, the Lopes are 11-5 (1-1) after a non-conference slate which many Lopes fans hope to forget. Losses to UC Davis at home, Louisiana Tech on the road and close "wins" against Western Kentucky & Saint Louis seemingly killed any chance that this team had of becoming a Top 25 team and it was only November.
Tyon Grant Foster (TGF), who was on the Naismith watch list for pre-season All American and player of the year missed the first two games due to suspension from last season and then played his first fourteen games like he was a rookie who had never seen the court before. In the first fourteen games of the season, TGF was averaging just nine points per game to go along with two rebounds and three assists. This stat line looks "respectable" if you don't take into consideration the fact that he was shooting just 19.8% from the field in those games.
By no means am I saying that the success and failure are only tied to Tyon's production, but what I am saying is that this team will go as far as he takes them. Over the last two games, the start of WAC play, TGF is averaging 22.5 points per game to go along with 8.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists. Even though they are 1-1 in those games, the team looks so much more complete than in the other four losses where Tyon was simply not looking like his true self.
Can the team overcome their metric woes?
Headed into the season, metric gurus like Evan Miya, Haslametrics, and Ken Pomeroy already didn't "love" the star struck team who took out St. Mary's last season as as 12 seed and had future Final Four participant Alabama on the ropes before succumbing to the pressure. The average ranking of the squad heading into this season was mid-fifties to low sixties by these three metric's databases. If Grand Canyon University wanted to overcome the early season "metric woes" they were going to have to blow teams out that they shouldn't have been on the same court as, and if they were playing up competition, they needed to lose in "close fashion".
Grand Canyon University did the exact opposite to what was needed to become a success and dropped from that mid-fifties number to approximately 120 on most sites before conference play started. The Lopes are just 2-14 "against the spread" this season meaning that they are playing down to their competition and leaving the door open for these lesser schools to have a shot at surmounting a comeback. GCU had a problem with this nearing the end of last season, the difference was, that they team guys with "killer mentalities" who knew how to put the game away.
This season, with TGF being a defensive liability, Coach Drew hasn't even had TGF on the court in "clutch minutes" this season. If you can't have your number one guy on the court in clutch time, who are you to rely on if you are Coach Drew? In certain instances the likes of Ray Harrison, Jakobe Coles, or even Makaih Williams have stepped up, but it is very inconsistent on who is "that guy".
What does Grand Canyon University need to do down the stretch?
While I'm sure many of you can take a wild guess at what it is going to take at this point for the Lopes to go dancing, I am going to break it down for you in four simple bullet points to make it easy for you!
Find out who is "your guy"
If that is Tyon Grant Foster, great, you are paying him an absurd amount of NIL money and he should be that guy. If its not him, you need to find another person who you can give the green light to go out and get points when you need them most. No more of this streaky night in and night out mentality. We need a cold blooded killer who is going to be your go to go.
Quit relying on your three-point shot
Grand Canyon ranks #241 nationally in three point %, yet we are counting on approximately 27% of our teams total points to come from behind the arc. This team is far to streaky to be successful by "out shooting" the opponent from behind the arc.
Stop Fouling!
GCU ranks #244 nationally in points allowed from the free throw line this season. The mentality should not be "make them earn it" because it is clear that teams know that we are prone to fouling, they are getting to the line and making their foul shots. This team needs to paly good defense and make teams earn it with defense and not at the free throw line.
Stop turning the ball over
Ranking #312 in the nation with a 9.2% Non-Steal Turnover % is simply not something to be proud of. Its not even like you are playing against a good team defensively. You are throwing the ball away, committing dumb fouls, and turning the ball over in critical moments in the game. You cannot give away possessions when you rank #278 nationally in Effective Field Goal %
There are many more things that can be added to this list. I mean seriously, I think I can probably add about twenty things to this list. But if Grand Canyon University wants to live up to the hopes and dreams of what this team can do, these are going to be the key factors down the stretch.
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