March Madness Team Breakdowns: South
- Jordon Leon
- Mar 19
- 17 min read
The home of the #1 overall seed, the Auburn Tigers. After breaking down the East and the West brackets between yesterday and today, I think it is safe to say that the committee did a good job with this one. Giving the higher seeds the best opportunity to make it farther in the tournament and saving the best games for last.
Compared to the East bracket for example, having Duke face the winner of Baylor/Mississippi St just doesn't seem fair. There are levels to this game and I think that those 2 teams in the 8/9 hole of the east are on a completely different level than the ones on the 8/9 line in the South. Without further ado, lets dive into the South Bracket starting with the team you know and love!
March Madness Team Breakdowns:
No. 1 Auburn
Headed into selection Sunday, the world was worried about whether or not the Auburn Tigers were going to retain the #1 overall seed in the tournament. Losing 3 of their last 4 games to Texas A&M, Alabama, and Tennessee was not how Auburn fans wanted to end the season. But regardless of how the last 4 games went, the Auburn Tigers still ended up with the overall #1 seed over Houston, Florida, and Duke.
Auburn comes into the tournament as the #2 overall offense and #12 defense according to the adjusted efficiency metric. They take very good care of the ball ranking #6 in the nation in turnover %, #2 in non-steal Turnover %, and #85 in Steal %. When you are playing a team as good as Auburn, you have to try and force the issue and limit their possessions. I can guarantee you, that not many teams in this tournament are going to be able to force Auburn to be uncomfortable after how Bruce Pearl prepared his team during the season. The Tigers had the #2 overall SOS this season and the #19 non-con SOS. Houston, Iowa St, Memphis, UNC, Purdue, and Duke all before going into the gauntlet that was the SEC schedule. It is important to mention that Auburn went 5-1 in those games and only lost at Cameron Indoor by 6.
Auburn was 27-1 before a loss to Florida in the beginning of Feb before rattling off 6 wins against Top 45 KenPom teams. No one is more prepared for March than Bruce Pearl and the Auburn Tigers. They will face off against Alabama St in their first game tomorrow 3/20 as a 32.5 point favorite. There are too many people on this team to name that change the game for Auburn, but none more impressive than what Johni Broome has been doing for the Tigers. If you want to watch a fun game, turn on a game where Broome is playing and you will be sure to have a good time.
No. 2 Michigan State
Coming into the season, many thought that this could be a year where Michigan St had a chance to be impressive and show the world what they could do. Starting the season off was nothing dramatically impressive as they lost to Kansas and Memphis early in the season which prompted a 13-game win streak for the Spartans. The cross-country road trip for Michigan St was not a pretty one as they dropped both games to USC and UCLA before finishing the season 9-1 to end the season in the Big 10 tournament. Not that they needed it, but the win over #5-seeded Oregon surely helped them solidify the #2 seed in the tournament.
Coming into the tournament, some things of note for the Spartans are as follows. Tom Izzo is 82-36 in March since he became a head coach in 1989. That is 36 seasons for the young man. So when you inevitably hear, "That's just Izzo in March, you should know why." With the #5 ranked team in the nation for defensive adjusted efficiency, the Spartans have their eFG%, Off rebounding %, and 3P% defense to thank for being in the Top 10 in all 3 of those categories. Something to consider on the opposite end, is the fact that the Spartans rank #322 in the nation for Steals per possession. So if you want to see tons of turnovers, don't watch Michigan St.
The Spartans got a very interesting draw as they had to play the Bryant Bulldogs as an 18.5 point favorite. and then the winner of Marquette/New Mexico. The second-round games in the South bracket are going to be electric.
No. 3 Iowa State
Being primarily a fan of the Big XII, I have watched a lot of Iowa State this season. They have been very good at times, and other times have looked very vulnerable to upset. They had a skid in the middle of the season when they lost 4 of 6 games and were on the verge of a 5th loss in that span before Curtis Jones poured it on late vs Arizona St on 1/25/25. With the #10 nationally ranked defense and the #21 ranked offense, this team has a lot to hang their hat on.
The thing that should be pointed out though if you haven't watched a ton of Iowa State basketball is their ability to go on scoring spurts. I mentioned earlier that game against Arizona St where Curtis Jones absolutely lit it up. There is not one guy on the team that everyone relies on. Whether it is Curtis Jones, Tamian Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert, or Milan Momcilovic, one of those guys is on, you can call it curtain for the other team. The Cyclones have 5 guys on their team that all average double-digit scoring which helps the team's overall success. The team also averages 35.8% from 3-point land with three guys shooting north of 37% on the season.
The Cyclones could have prepared themselves better for the tournament and the potential for a #2 seed if they had played more respectable competition early on in the season. Very seldom is a #202 ranked non-con SOS going to get you a 2-seed, especially if you lose several games in conference. The Cyclones are going to play fast, force you to play their brand of basketball, and be different. They are not going to give you easy opportunities around the hoop and are going to make you earn it. Lipscomb is going to have their hands full in their first game.
No. 4 Texas A&M
The Texas A&M Aggies, where do we start with this team? This is going to be the 10th team that we are going to discuss from the SEC. Led by Senior Wade Taylor IV, the senior averages 16/3/4 on the season with 36/33/80 splits. Weirdly enough, for being in the SEC, this team is not a great offensive juggernaut like the rest of the SEC. They play at a very slow pace, #238 in the nation from a tempo perspective, and play very meticulous basketball.
They rank #317 in eFG%, #249 in turnovers, #317 in 3P%, #292 in 2P%, and #274 in FT%. If we are going to get into a shootout, this team is going to lose 9/10 times and head coach Buzz Williams knows this. He is going to force teams to play the Aggies style of basketball if he wants to win games in March. The #5 overall SOS is the biggest reason why you are seeing the Aggies on the #4 seed line in this year's tournament. The Aggies rank #13 in the country in points from the FT line where they average approximately 24% of their points from the line. The biggest benefit for the Aggies is their ability to rebound on the offensive glass. They bring down a rebound on the off glass on 42% of their possessions. That is #1 in the country by a fairly large margin.
While I dont think the Aggies have to worry about Yale, their second round game in the winner of Ole Miss/UNC is going to be a challenge. I can't wait to watch this game and see how the Aggies try to break down their opponent.
No. 5 Michigan
In Dusty May's first season in Ann Arbor, he has the boys firing on all cylinders. Tre Donaldson, Vladislav Goldin, and Danny Wolf have dominated the Big 10 for the majority of the season thus far. Vlad Goldin was a transfer from FAU after Dusty May left for the Michigan job and his talent transferred right across from the AAC into the Big 10 this season. Averaging 17/7 was good enough to carry the Wolverines to their first Big 10 title in almost 10 years.
Vlad Goldin is different in the sense that he hits the 3-point shot at a 37% clip. That is very good for a guy who is all of 7'2 inches and it shows in his game. Inside the paint he is averaging 67% which is also good for top 10 in the nation in that category. Not very many people are going to be able to stop this guy and Dusty May knows that. Ranked #13 in the country on defense, #17 eFG%, and #14 in 2P% is all a big reason why Michigan is in the spot that they are. On the offensive side of the ball, Michigan is as about as good as you can get from 2-point land as they make 58% of those shots which is good for #12 in the nation and #32 in blocks per possession in the country.
If there was one thing that you want to look at for Michigan, it is their inability to protect the ball. Ranked #349 in Non-Steal Turnovers on offense and #325 in Steals per possession. They average a turnover on 19.8% of possessions this season. The only reason they are where they are is due to Vlad Goldin on offense and the defense overall. The Wolverines play against the UCSD Tritons tomorrow which will shape up to be one of the best games in the first weekend. Make sure to tune in for that game.
No. 6 Ole Miss
As you can probably realize at this point in time. If you didn't watch basketball this season, you would think that the SEC was the Thanos of the CBB landscape. 14 of the 16 teams that are in the SEC made the big dance and all 16 are competing in some form of post-season tournament. The Ole Miss Rebels are a very interesting case for making a run in the tournament and they have a variety of reasons as to why that is.
The Ole Miss Rebels rank #3 in turnover % on the offensive side of the ball meaning that are very good at protecting the ball and they don't give teams extra possessions unnecessarily. As far as defense is concerned, the Rebels do a very good job at forcing teams to turn the ball over, ranking #33 in that category and a better #25 in steals per possession. If there was one thing that I would be very concerned about, is their inability not to foul the shooter. Their defense ranks #323 in FTA/FGA.
This means that the Ole Miss defense is fouling a lot, stopping the clock, and allowing their opponent the opportunity to score points without any time running off the clock. As much as I love this Ole Miss team this season, I think there is a possibility that they get lit up by UNC in their first-round game. If Ole MIss wants to stop that from happening, they are going to need Pedulla to step up and shoot the rock. The Guard is averaging 15/4/4 this season so he has what it takes. Where he is going to have to step up is behind the 3-point arc. Pedulla hits 39% of his shots from 3-point land. If Pedulla shoots it well from deep, I could see the Rebels moving on.
No. 7 Marquette
Shaka Smart and Marquette has become a household name in the dance over the last few seasons. Kam Jones has become another household name. If you watch college basketball, you know Kam Jones. If you don't, I'll introduce you to him right now. Averaging 19/5/6 this season for the Golden Eagles, he also averages nearly 2 steals per game. He is one of the best guards in the Big East and you could argue that he is one of the best in the country.
If we aren't talking about Kam Jones, we are going to be talking about the Golden Eagles and their ability to force the issue and cause turnovers on the defensive end of the court. Ranked #20 in the country for Turnover %, #15 in steal % and #60 in 3P% this season. This Marquette squad is going to cause issues for some team this season in March, IF they can get passed the red hot Lobos. If I am Shaka Smart, I am racking my brain on how we got matched up against possibly the best 10 seed in the country with Donovan Dent on the other side of the court. If Marquette can protect the ball, and force UNM to score from the free throw line, I think they can win this game.
No. 8 Louisville
Thank you to Pat Kelsey and the Louisville Cardinals. They have brought fun basketball back to the state of Kentucky. They run fast, they score the ball at a high rate, and they play down low. In the good year of 2025, so many teams try to force the issue and shoot the ball from behind the arc. Not Pat Kelsey's squad, If you see Kelsey shooting from behind the arc, it likely just means that Chucky Hepburn is on the court.
Ranked #19 in the country in 2P% is the only thing that the Cardinals rank in the top 50 on when it comes to offensive scoring. The defensive side, they force a lot of non-steal turnovers, ranking #16 in the country in that metric and #73 in 2P% on defense. Louisville hails out of the ACC. They started the season 7-5 before rattling off 18 wins and only 1 loss to end the season. Due to the ACC's scheduling in conference, the Cardinals didnt have to play UNC or Duke in conference play until the tournament. I want to edge to Louisville in this matchup, I just don't know if they are battled tested this season and their predictive metrics might be slightly inflated.
Chucky Hepburn transferred from Wisconsin to play for Pat Kelsey after last season. Averaging 44/84/33 splits this season, Hepburn is 1 of 2 players on this squad that average 16 points per game. If Louisville wants to win this game, they are going to need Hepburn on the court forcing the issue. Not only does he score the rock, he is also an elite defensive presence averaging 3 steals per game.
No. 9 Creighton
Steven Ashworth may or may not have 3 kids and be in his 12th season of basketball. I genuinely am not sure how this guy is still playing basketball and not selling cars. Regardless of what I think, the Blue Jays hail as one of 2 teams out of the state of Nebraska.
The Blue Jays have 5 players who average double-digit scoring led by big man Ryan Kalkbrenner who was crowned the Big East Player of the year. Averaging 19 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists this season. Kalkbrenner underneath is a force to be reckoned with as he hits 66% of his shots on the offensive side but also averages nearly 3 blocks per game. If you don't pay attention to where Kalkbrenner is on the court, it is safe to assume that your ball will end up in the 13th row. I mentioned Steven Ashworth already, but another name to watch is Pop Isaacs, transferred from Texas Tech after 2 seasons, and averages 16/5/4 this season.
Even though they have the guys to score a lot, they rank #34 in the nation in offensive-adjusted efficiency and #43 in defensive-adjusted efficiency. The offense of Creighton does a very good job at getting under the basket. Whether it is Isaacs, Ashworth, or Kalkbrenner shooting the basketball, they do a very good job ranking #2 in the nation in that category. Where they don't rank well is steals per possession and blocks per possession when on offense. Ranking #350 and #304 respectively in those categories. If the Blue Jays want to win this game vs Louisville, they need to play a very clean basketball game and limit the unnecessary turnovers. Expect an amazing game on Thursday between these 2 heavy hitters.
No. 10 New Mexico
The MWC regular season champions don't mess around when it comes to basketball. Everyone, including myself was nervous about the late departure of MWC player of the year last year in JT Toppin. Are the Lobos going to be able to recoup from that loss? It is safe to say that they did a good job filling that hole. Coach Pitino has done a great job with the Lobos this season and it has come from speeding up the game, forcing turnovers, and playing solid basketball.
The Lobos rank #4 in the nation in adj tempo, #5 in the nation in Avg possession length, and #69 in the turnover % meaning that, unlike the other squads around this tempo ranking, they do not turn over the ball and play recklessly. On the defensive side of the ball, because of the fact that they are forcing the issue, they limit the amount of assists their opponents get and force bad shots. Ranking #20 in adjusted defensive efficiency gives a benefit to the Lobos because of how fast they play, if they force other teams to try to keep up with them, they cause a lot of turnovers which gives them additional possessions. Ranked #39 in Steal % and Non-Steal turnover %.
I would be remised if I didn't include the star of the show. Donovan Dent has become all that and a bag of chips for the Lobos. Averaging 21/3/7 this season, Dent has been a massive reason for the winning ways of the Lobos. Dent scores the rock from everywhere. His splits of 50/78/41 this season has shown the world that he can do it all. His one downfall is the # of turnovers that he has. Dent averages 3 turnovers per game. If the Lobos want to win this game, it is going to come on the back of Dent and he is going to have to limit turnovers!
No. 11 UNC
Congratulations to Bubba Cunningham as he somehow managed to get his precious UNC Tarheels in the dance with a 1-12 Q1 record this season. The offense of the Tarheels is what saved them. They rank #52 in eFG%, #64 in 3p%, #51 in 2P%, and #41 in Turnover %. They take care of the ball, they force the issue on offense, and make you play their brand of basketball. They rank #210 in bench minutes this season meaning that they rely a lot on their offense from the starting 5 to get the job done.
What is it going to take to see UNC win their second game in March? They are going to need to exploit Mississippi inability to defend without fouling, they need to protect the basketball, and they need to force Ole Miss to play their brand of basketball. If you speed Ole Miss up, they are going to make mistakes leaving the window open for the Tarheels. RJ Davis scoring the rock is also obviously going to be important as it has all season, but even more so in this game considering Mississippi strong defense overall. Davis averages 87% from the free throw line. If I am UNC, Davis needs to have the ball in his hand at all times and make him go to the line 8-10 times this game and win it from the line.
No. 12 UCSD
Want to watch fun basketball? Tune into the Big East regular season game where UCSD is playing. This squad plays loose and is just an overall fun brand of basketball. With a record of 30-4, they own the nation's longest active win streak at 15 games. They also own the nations record for most wins on the road in a single season with 18 games. I wish we could watch UCSD on repeat all season.
They play a slow brand of basketball like the good ole days, coming in at #271 in the tempo category. On the defensive side of the ball, they rank #4 in steals, #2 in Turnovers, and #23 in non-steal turnovers. On the offensive side of the ball, they rank #57 in 3P%, #31 in 2P%, and #7 in turnover % on offense. So when they are forcing the issue, they cause turnovers, slow the basketball down, and take the best possible shot. Did i forget to add, they also don't allow steals? They rank #4 in the nation in that category as well.
UCSD plays Michigan this weekend and has a true chance to upset the Wolverines. If they can force turnovers, I think that UCSD has a true chance to not only beat the Wolverines but also win their R32 game and give someone the business in the S16.
No. 13 Yale
The Yale Bulldogs have been here before. Don't sleep on the Bulldogs coming off last season's wild-card win as they upset Auburn but in 2016 they also upset Baylor. Shoutout Taurean Prince teaching us about rebounds that day. The Bulldogs are no stranger to being the big underdog and upsetting Goliath.
This season, we are focusing on the offense for Yale as they rank #41 in eFG%, #19 in turnovers, #9 in 3P%, #30 in steals, and #40 in non-steal turnovers. They play very very sound fundamental basketball. You don't have to worry about whether or not Yale is going to be good on offense. The question is whether or not they can limit their opponent on the defensive side of the ball. They rank outside the Top 100 in all defensive categories. If they want to win games, they are going to have to outshoot their opponents and they don't like having to do that considering they play slow and methodical.
If you are watching Yale basketball this weekend, listen for the name John Poulakidas. This kid is a senior playing in the Ivy League but has the skill, talent, and ability to play at a high major. Averaging 19/3/2 this season on 47/91/42 shooting, Poulakidas has been a big reason for the success of the Yale Bulldogs this season. If any SEC teams lose in the first round, don't be surprised if it is Texas A&M
No. 14 Lipscomb
The Bisons were granted the short stick this season with the lack of bid stealers this season. When they won their tournament, they were sitting pretty on the #12 seed line, but after several teams won their conference tournaments and locked in those seed lines, they started to slip. They ended on the #14 line against a very tough Iowa St team.
At 25-9 this season, the regular season and tournament champ out of the ASUN, there is another fun player to watch who has been dominating the mid-major landscape. Jacob Ognacevic dominated the ASUN en route to 20/8/2 this season on 57/80/40 splits. The big man can score from all spots on the court as seen by his splits, but what really is the biggest benefit for the Bisons, is his ability to play deep minutes. He averages 35 minutes per game as a big man.
Overall the offense for Lipscomb is why they are where they are. Ranked #23 in eFG% led by 2P% at #21 and FT% at #7 in the country. Lipscomb is one of those teams that you don't want to get into a shooting match with because they are going to force the issue and make the basketball go through the hoop.
No. 15 Bryant
Welcome to the game Bryant Bulldogs. The Bulldogs season was looking very bleak as they turned the corner into the new year as they were 6-10 after losing to Grand Canyon by 56 points to ring in the new year. It should be noted that Rafael Pinzon was injured for a majority of the non-con slate. He returned and this team was completely different. Upon his return, they lost only 2 games in the conference by a combined 9 points. The Bulldogs did this season what the Catamounts have been doing for the last several seasons to the American East.
Pinzon averaged 19/3/2 with 1.5 steals on the season playing through injury for a majority of the season. The Bulldogs have 4 guys that average more than 10 points per game but the entire offense runs through Pinzon. If Pinzon isn't scoring, the entire team seems to fall apart. Pinzon's splits are 42/89/39 this season en route to the American East title game. Starting the season 6-10 with the #154 non-con slate is why Bryant is on this seed line. There is no world where Michigan St even has to play their starters in the second half in this one.
No. 16 Alabama St
After a buzzer-beater in the play-in game, the Hornets get a prize and get to play the #1 overall seed Auburn in the tournament. Alabama St wasn't even the best team in the SWAC this season. They were the #5 seed in the SWAC tournament and won 3 games in 3 days to secure a game in the play-in. Sophomore guard Amarr Knox and Senior Guard Cj Hines are the 2 bright spots on this squad. Between those 2 guys, they average approximately 40% of the Hornets scoring. The Hornet's biggest issue is throwing free points away at the line. From the free throw line, the Hornets average just 69% this season. If Alabama St somehow manages to keep this game within 35, i would be very surprised.
March Madness Predictions: South Bracket
UNM to the Sweet 16
Yale > Texas A&M
Louisville >Auburn
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