March Madness Team Breakdowns: MIDWEST

Coming down to the last section of the bracket, home of the Houston Cougars. The overall #1 seed in this bracket has large tournament aspirations this season winning their conference regular season and tournament titles. But can another team finish them off?

March Madness Team Breakdowns:

No. 1 Houston

We have talked about the most lethal offensive teams. But we haven’t talked much about some of the most defensive teams. There is no doubt that Houston is that team. Ranked #4 in eFG%, #5 in 2P%, and #6 in blocks per possession. This Houston team really gets after it and forces you to play good solid basketball if you want to win.

LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan, J’Wan Roberts, and Emmanuel Sharp are just a few of the names you should know if you are following the Cougars this March. Cryer ranks Top 10 in FT% at just shy of 92% and when I say this man does it all, he really does. Another big name that I didn't mention earlier is Joseph Tugler. The sophomore out of Monroe, LA is a gritty guy who is willing to get on the ground and take a bullet for his players. His name isnt called on as much as the other guys mentioned, but when he is on the floor, watch out.

No. 2 Tennessee

Where do we start with this squad. The guard from UNF? The Coach who can never seem to get over the hump? The team that is ranked #2 in the nation in defense? Why not all 3? Starting out with our guy Chaz Lanier, the transfer from North Florida who burst onto the scene last season but proved that he is "That guy" this season for Tennessee. He is averaging 17/4/2 this season for the Volunteers but also plays lock down defense. His 47/78/40 shooting splits have proven how good he can be down the stretch. He has the green light from Rick Barnes on any day that ends in Y.

Barnes, the tenured head coach, for whatever reason can have the best team in the country but can never seem to get over the hump. Whether they run into a hot shooting team, his team slumps at the wrong time. He is 9-10 in March at Tennessee and has led the Vols to 4 tournaments in his 9 seasons in Knoxville. At Tennessee, his squad has never made it to the second weekend of the tournament. Will this year be different as the #2 seed in the Midwest?

The #2 ranked defense on a 27-7 team is typically seen as a good thing. But then you realize they play in the SEC which is hailed as THE offensive juggernaut conference and it takes it to a whole new level. Holding teams to 28% shooting from 3-point land, recording a block on 17% of possessions and holding teams to a 44% eFG is next level defense. Another thing of note, is Tennessee isn't your typical SEC team playing fast and furious. Tennessee ranks #346 in tempo and #263 in adjusted possession length

No. 3 Kentucky

In Mark Pope's first season at the helm for the Wildcats, he leads them to a #3 overall seed ranking in the dance. The legendary coach Cal was run out of town after his lack of success in March in his final 3 seasons in Kentucky. This team is a very fun team to watch because not only are they fast, but they play smart. Ranking #23 in the country in adjusted tempo while limiting steals, blocks, and turnovers is key to being a successful team in March. The Wildcats rank T75 in all of those categories.

If there is one thing of note for this Kentucky squad, it is their inability to force turnovers. They rank #364 in non-steal turnovers and #341 in turnover possession % on the defensive side of the ball. They also struggle with defending against a team that can drive into the paint and score the basketball. Ranked #289 in 2P% shooting, allowing teams to score nearly 54% of their baskets from inside the paint.

If Coach Pope is going to want to be in the second week of March, he is going to have to rely on his #8 offense to score the rock and fast. Coming in at #25 and #33 respectively for 3P% shooting and 2P% shooting, I think it is safe to say, you don't need defense is you are scoring the rock. Don't sleep on the Wildcats

No. 4 Purdue

No Zach Edey, but don't worry, Matt Painter still has his guys in Fletcher Loyer, Braden Smith, and Trey Kaufman-Renn in the great state of Indiana. The question after Edey went to the league was who was going to fill his shoes. While not nearly as tall and probably doesn't wear the same size of shoes, Braden Smith answered the call.

Coming in ranked #1 in the country in assist-to-turnover rate, #73 in Steal rate and #73 in true shooting % this season. Averaging 16/5/9 this season while also recording 2 steals per game is a big reason Purdue is where they are right now. Another reason is Kaufman-Renn averaging 20/6/3. This team is 2 things and it is not afraid to score the rock, and not afraid to give it to the hot hand. They are an 8.5-point favorite vs High Point this weekend in the first round of the tournament and I expect that to remain true as we see Matt Painter's guys go to work.

No. 5 Clemson

The good ole Clemson Tigers. Are you guys supposed to be good at football or something? Let's let the good basketball teams do something would ya? Hailing out of the ACC, the Tigers have a lot of scoring threats this season led by none other than Chase Hunter averaging 17/3/3. The issue that this entire team has, not only just Hunter, is their prone to on-ball and off-ball turnovers. They average a turnover on 9.3% of possessions while also having a non-steal turnover on 6.5% of possessions.

The issue that the above poses is the fact that they also play at one of the slowest paces in the country at #327 nationally. If the #24 offense is not playing up to snuff, they are going to have to rely heavily on the #16 overall defense to help them lock down and get the job done. If there is one massive benefit for the Tigers, is they are never out of it until they say they are. Hitting almost 40% of their 3's this season is good for #30 in the country in that category and 77% of their free throws. If Clemson can limit their turnovers, we may be in for a fun run from the Tigers.

No. 6 Illinois

Oh no, is that you? I should put this part of the article upside down. If you know, you know. This Illinois squad has surprised quite a few people including myself this season with the #20 overall KP ranking anchored by their really strong adjusted offensive efficiency at #15 in the country. On the offensive side of things, there is a lot to consider for this team. Why do they rank in the T100 for points made from behind the arc if they are an abysmal #316 in the country in made 3-point shots? Why don't they force the issue and get to the free throw line considering that they are ranked T50 in made FT%?

Led by the tall guard Kasper Jakucionis out of Lithuania averaging 15/6/5 this seasons on 45% shooting as a freshman. I talked in depth about Kasparas in my pre-season Big X podcast and how he was going to be a difference maker for the Illini and that he was. Can we see a resurgence of the Illini after they ran into the buzz saw that was Uconn last season?

No. 7 UCLA

The cross-country travel killers. Since joining the Big X, they have increased travel for East Coast Teams by almost double and resulted in a ton of losses from the top teams. Maryland lost 2x on the West Coast, Wisconsin lost, and Michigan state lost and all the coaches were blaming it on the travel schedule that the west coast schools created.

UCLA ranks #1 in the country in non-steal turnovers and #35 in Steal % in the country this season which is a good reason why this team is in the position that they are. By forcing the issue, slowing down the game, and forcing teams to make bad decisions. The #17 ranked overall defense by adjusted efficiency has played a massive part because on the offensive side of things, they rank outside of the Top 100 in both 3P% and 2P%. DOes this mean that they can't score? Of course not, they can score, they just are not the team you are going to watch if you want to see 100 points scored. If you watch college basketball, think Virginia basketball. Slow, methodical, and intentional is exactly what this squad is looking to do to you. The Bruins get Utah State in the first round in what I think will be one of their easiest games of the season. Utah State is not Big X material and I think that shows this weekend.

No. 8 Gonzaga

The bulldogs went from in the tournament, to out of the tournament to back in thanks to the auto bid for the WCC. While I don't think that the committee was ever going to truly leave Mark Few out of the tournament, there were certain questions of it for a while when the bulldogs couldn't seem to figure it out in the middle of the season.

Ranked as the #26 overall offense and #36 overall defense from the eFG% metric, this squad has what it takes to make a deep run, after all, they have made it to the Sweet 16 for the last 13 years if my math serves me correctly. Where the fans are really going to love watching the Bulldogs is there ability to drive to the rack and do it successfully. They rank #11 in 2P% and #5 in FT% this season while also limiting steals and turnovers.

On the defensive side of the ball, they limit teams from shooting the 3-point shot with smothering defense and good box outs. They rank #35 nationally in not allowing offensive rebounds and giving the opponent second-chance points. If I was Houston, I would be rooting for Georgia hard in the first round because I want nothing to do with this Gonzaga squad in March.

No. 9 Georgia

Similarly to their counterpart in the first-round matchup, Georgia was good and then they weren't, and then they were? There was a stretch to start the season where they went 12-1 with their only loss coming to Marquette and then big bad SEC play started and Georgia forgot how to play basketball. They went 4-10 to kick off SEC play before rattling off wins against Florida, Texas, and Vanderbilt to end the season.

Freshman Asa Newell is a big reason for the rapid ascension in Athens Georgia this season. Averaging 15/7/1 as a freshman forward in the SEC is impressive for the big man. Add in the fact that they have Silas Demary in the backcourt and you are seeing one of the best young tandems in the SEC. Averaging 14/4/3 for Demary this season on 39/75/33 shooting splits is amazing for the sophomore.

If this Georgia squad can rely heavily on their #27 ranked defense against Gonzaga in this first game, I think there is a chance that they give Houston a run for their money. The #31 ranked 3P% and the #56 ranked 2P% is going to be a big handle for them to go along witht he #12 blocks per possession. Give me the Georgia Bulldogs in an upset in the first round.

No. 10 Utah State

Utah State, oh god this team stinks. Insert Sponge bob meme. No but seriously, I genuinely have nothing good to say about this team. They rank #231 in defensive eFG%, #257 in 2P%, and #175 in 3P%. They got a couple of good wins over the top half of the MWC this season, but their #150 SOS is nothing to gawk over.

Ian Martinez is the one bright spot on this squad averaging 17 points per game. He is 1 of only 2 people who score in double digits for the Aggies. If he is stopped, the Bruins might win by 25. Ian Martinez is going to try and force the issue inside to flex on his 90% free throw rating, but the Bruins are going to be prepared and practicing to defend without fouling in this matchup.

No. 11 Xavier

After an amazing comeback win in the first 4, Xavier finds themselves up against Illinois in the first round of the tournament. This is going to be a competition to say the least. I talked about Xavier in my pre-season podcast for the Big East and I thought that they were going to be the winner in the Big East, I was wrong on that one. They started off the season very rough before having a couple of good wins to end the season.

Xavier has a good shot to win this game against Illinois and it is because of the Illini's inability to defend the 3-point shot. The Musketeers love to shoot it from 3. As a matter a fact, they are ranked #6 in the nation in made 3's this season. Don't sleep on this upset potential is Zach Freemantle and Ryan Conwell get hot at the right time.

No. 12 McNeese

Will Wade and company have won the Southland 2x in the last 2 seasons and it was by complete and utter domination. Will Wade has already announced that he will be moving to NC State as their next head coach once the season concludes. Ranked #59 in the country per KenPom, this team relies a lot of their ability to cause havoc. What do I mean by that? They rank #10 in the country in steals per possession and #18 in the country in turnover margin. They play a very slow brand of basketball, coming in at #346 in adjusted tempo. If McNeese is going to beat Clemson, you are going to hear the names Quadir Copeland and Christian Shumate a lot this tournament.

No. 13 High Point

The High Point Panthers find themselves in an interesting position against Purdue as they are ranked #12 in eFG%, #52 in 3P%, and #14 in 2P% this season. They go up against Purdue in the first round who isn't known for their amazing defense. I am not saying that High Point wins by double digits, but watch out for the names Kezza Giffa, Kimani Hamilton, and D'Maurian Williams in this game. The 3 guys I just named account 50% of the Panthers scoring, 20% of their rebounds, and 50% of their assists. Watch out Purdue, here comes the Panthers!

No. 14 Troy

The Troy Trojans won a very difficult Sun Belt where there was a 4-team tie at the top of the conference. They won the tournament and find themselves in a precarious situation as they face off against Kentucky who is coming off their most embarrassing first-round loss in possibly tournament history as they got dominated by Oakland and Jack Golke.

The Trojans are going to rely on their defense against Kentucky as they only have 2 players who score in double digits. Tayton Conerway averages 15/5/5 and 2 steals this season in the Sun Belt and is going to be a household name in March if he is able to will his squad to a victory vs Kentucky.

No. 15 Wofford

The Wofford Terriers are led by Tripp who averages 14/4/3 this season and helped out by Filewitch and the Bailey twins. Averaging 75 points per game is about the only thing that the Terriers have going for them. They are god awful defensively, coming in at #231 in the nation, #323 in defensive eFG%,, and #222 and #218 in 3P% and 2P% defense. It is safe to say that the Wofford Terriers are probably going to lose this game by 20.

No. 16 SIUE

Congratulations SIUE, you won your conference tournament. As a reward, you get to play against a smothering defense that is Houston. They ranked #296 in 2P% this season and #317 in FT% meaning that the only way they can successfully score the rock is by the 3-ball. Their issue, is they don't do that well either coming in at #168. The Cougars are the worst rated KP team in the dance this season coming in at #216 overall. The spread of this game is north of 30 and I don't even think it is that close.

MARCH MADNESS PREDICTIONS:

1. Houston Natty

2. HPU > Purdue

3. McNeese > Clemson

4. Georgia > Gonzaga