March Madness Team Breakdowns: East
- Jordon Leon
- Mar 19
- 20 min read
Yesterday, we talked about what I called the "Death Gauntlet out of the West." Now, we are going to dive into the East Bracket. While each and every one of these teams deserves to be there, this part of the bracket might be one of the chalkiest parts of the bracket. I will dive into why each team either has a chance or has no chance depending on their draw, as well as break down each team's best player and statistics.
March Madness Team Breakdowns:
No.1 Duke
Coming into March, if you don't know about Cooper Flagg and the Duke Blue Devils, you may live under a rock or not watch any sports at all. Cooper Flagg has been tagged as "generational" and possibly the best NBA-ready player since Lebron James by ESPN, CBS, and every other reputable sports network. Coop is averaging 18/8/4 this season and has played in every game for the Blue Devils less the ACC tournament due to an ankle injury sustained vs UNC. Currently, media reports say that he should be back for the tournament game on Friday. The question is, "do you risk additional injury vs a #16 seed? Why not give him time to rest until Sunday at the earliest for the R32 game? Only time will tell how the Blue Devils approach Flagg's health.
There were arguments that this team deserved the #1 overall seed over Auburn but the full body of work was just behind that of Auburn per committee members. Duke is ranked #3 in offensive efficiency and #4 in defensive efficiency per KenPom, so to say they are good is an understatement. On the offensive side of the ball, they ranked T50 in every possible numerical category aside from Block %. They play the game rather fast averaging 17 seconds per possession and an adjusted tempo of 65.7 possessions per game.
The one interesting thing that I have yet to figure out about Duke is why they only take 45% of their points from 2-point land when they rank #8 nationally in 2P%. They score about 37% of their points from behind the 3-point arc. While they are still good in that category as well ranking #21, it poses a question, "could they beat teams by more if they didn't live and die by the 3-ball?
Duke will play the winner of American/Mount St. Mary's on Friday in their R64 game. With a spread that will be north of 25, I expect that Duke will cover that easily assuming that Flagg plays. They can still cover if Flagg decides to sit out, but it will be a blowout, possibly 40+ if Flagg does go.
No.2 Alabama
Coming off of an unexpected run to the Final Four in 2024, Mark Sears removed himself from the Draft and said he was "Coming back to finish business". Ranked pre-season #2, it looked like Alabama was going to do just that early on in the season as they beat Illinois and Houston, and then ranked Rutgers in the Players Era Tournament in Las Vegas over Thanksgiving and only lost 2 games in their first 18 to Purdue and Oregon. Headed into SEC play, Alabama had what looked to be the toughest stretch of basketball playing Auburn 2x, Florida 2x, and Tennessee 2x all within a month to the end of the season. Of their 7 losses this season, 4 of them came during that stretch.
Alabama has what it takes to compete with the best due to its rapid offensive sets and ability to force teams to play at their speed. Alabama ranks #1 nationally in tempo averaging nearly 75 possessions per game at an average possession length of 15 seconds, which is #4 in the nation. You will hardly see Alabama running a full-court set, it's just not what they do. They can score 100 on any given night and they have done so frequently this season. They rank #4 nationally in 2P% and #25 in Free Throws attempted. Another benefit to their offense is their ability to rebound the basketball. They average an offensive rebound of nearly 35% of their possessions. Having additional opportunities to score the basketball is not what you want to give Alabama is you are their opponent.
Mark Sears averages 19/3/5 on the season with 41/85/34 splits. That is about as good as you can do if you are an all-American. Something else to consider is the fact that Grant Nelson is also still on that team averaging nearly 8 rebounds a game while contributing 12 points. The Crimson Tide have 7 players on their team that average double digits. Don't sleep on their ability to dish the ball either. If one player isn't scoring, they aren't afraid to get others involved. The one glaring hole that they have is their guard's ability to protect the ball. The guards average nearly 2 turnovers per game each. If you have 8 turnovers late against Duke, Wisconsin, or Arizona, it might be wraps.
Alabama plays against Robert Morris in the first round on Thursday and I expect them to cover easily and have their backups in early in the second half. This team's offensive firepower will just be too much to handle for the Colonials.
No. 3 Wisconsin
Welcome to the conversation Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin has been an interesting team this season in the BIG 10 as they started off the season hot going 8-0 win wins against #14 Arizona, UCF, and Pittsburgh before going on a 3-game skid vs Michigan, Marquette and Illinois. I heard from many Wisconsin fans that they felt like the sky was falling after that 3 game skid and they were never going to recover. The BIG was a tougher conference this season with the additions of UCLA and USC because it posed a weird travel element that BIG teams haven't had to consider before this season. Traveling to play UCLA on Thursday and then traveling to the RAC to play Rutgers on Saturday is simply something.
In his 6th season in College, John Tonje is leading the Badgers this season with 19/5/2 on 47/90/39 splits. If you want to win a game vs Wisconsin, you have to account for Tonje and figure out everything else later. If you leave Tonje open from behind the arc, you can kiss your night goodbye early. Outside of Tonje, the Badgers only have one other player who is averaging more than 10 points per game. The Badgers need to find a 3rd and potentially 4th guy who can step up in the tournament and consistently produce otherwise they are going to lose in the 2nd round to a good 6/11 team. At this point in the season, teams are going to lock in on your #1 guy and force to you score another way and if you don't have another person? Whelp, goodnight guys!
Coming into the tournament with the #13 offense and the #27 defense, Wisconsin is the lowest rated #3 seed as far as those metrics are concerned. In the last 25 seasons, the national champion had a T25 offense and a T50 defense per KenPom on selection Sunday, so as far as that is concerned, the Badgers fit the bill, but their path isnt an easy one. Facing Montana on Thursday, who some are predicting as an upset to then face the winner of BYU/VCU on the second round? To get out of Denver, you are going to have two T100 wins per KenPom.
No. 4 Arizona
Arizona started the season off about as bad as any team could have wanted to. In the first 10 games, they were 5-5. Looking back on it, those losses were against good teams, we just didnt know about it at the time. Oklahoma, West Virginia, and UCLA were 3 of the 5 losses that Arizona endured. Similarly to Wisconsin fans, Arizona fans were calling for the firing of Tommy Lloyd because he "wasn't it" and "didn't have what it took". After that 5-5 start, Tommy Llyod went 12-1 beating very good, Texas Tech, Iowa St, BYU, and Baylor along the way. The ship was righted and people felt like they had a chance.
Arizona ranks #30 in the country in D-1 experience and continuity meaning they have an older and more experienced team led by Caleb Love. Caleb Love averages 17/4/4 on 39/89/32 splits which was good for All-Big XII first team as well as an All-American selection. Outside of Caleb Love, it seems at times that Lloyd still hasn't figured out his roster fully even after 34 games. There is certain times when Henri Veesaar is the clear choice but he goes with Tommy Townsend or vice versa. He has 9 players who have played in all 34 games this season and another 2 who have played 20+ games. This is good for some teams and bad for others. The lack of consistent minutes across games has hurt some of Arizona's better players.
Arizona's offense is among the best in the country at #12 nationally. They are very good when they take 2-point shots as they rank #44 nationally from inside the 3-point arc. If their opponent forces them to take 3-point shots, the game could get ugly as they rank #247 nationally from three. If you are rooting for Arizona, you want to see Caleb Love take the ball inside and force the issue against Akron this weekend in their first-round game in Denver. If Caleb Love is off, you want to see Hennri Veesaar getting some quality minutes as he is one of your best big men who can get you a ton of buckets off the bounce and in the P&R. Arizona is on upset alert vs Akron simply based on their previous outings in March and the Red hot Zips. I don't think Arizona drops this game, I don't think it is relatively close, but also wouldn't be surprised if i woke up to an Arizona swan song.
No. 5 Oregon
Oregon is a team that I have still yet to figure out this season. They started the season hotter than ever and earned themselves several T25 votes starting 9-0 before losing their first game to UCLA at home and then proceeded to win 6 of the next 7. They have several good wins against the field with wins over Texas A&M, Alabama, Maryland, and Wisconsin this season. In the middle of the season after starting 16-3 and having a T10 ranking by their name, Oregon lost 6 straight games. While 5 of those 6 games were on the road, they lost meaningfully to Minnesota and Nebraska during that stretch. Two teams who were not even sniffing the postseason. I think that Oregon could have been a 4 seed or possibly a 3 seed if they won those 2 games late in the season.
Oregon ranks #40 in offense and #30 in defense nationally while having a faster tempo in the country at 67 possessions per game with an average possession length of 17 seconds per. This season, Oregon has shown that they can run and compete with the fastest teams, but also turn the motor off and slow the flow of the game way down if they have to. Forcing a team to play to their weaknesses rather than Oregon playing only to their strengths. The issues with Oregon is they rank #49 nationally in FT% but only score 19% of their points from there. They don't force the issue and cause foul trouble. If you are a T50 team nationally from the charity stripe, that needs to be a focus. The Ducks score 50% of their points from 2-point land which they rank #109 nationally making exactly 53% of their shots from there. They aren't terrible from behind the arc either making 35% of those shots.
The Ducks have to be critical, meticulous, and intentional in their game on Friday if they want a chance to win vs a very good Liberty squad. Having an assist on 54% of your FG's made is good in most instances, but if they can force the issue, move the ball, and increase that # to closer to 60%, I think they win easily vs the Flames.
No. 6 BYU
In a season where not very many people expected much after getting embarrassed in the first round of the tournament last season vs Duqesne, The Cougars are back and they look better than ever. After losing to Cincinnati on the road, they rattled off 8 straight wins to enter Big XII tournament play. I have watched a lot of BYU basketball this season admittedly and if you like watching good team basketball, this is the team to watch.
Richie Saunders, Kanon Catchings, and Trevin Knell are all guys who could go off at a moments notice and there is nothing you can do about it. These three guys all average better than 39% from behind the 3-point arc. What I want you to know about this team, is they are never out of it until the buzzer hits zero simply because of these 3 names. If you want to consider a 4th, look at Keba Keita, a junior from Mali. He doesn't do the most on the offensive side of the ball averaging 7/7/1 but he is on the court for a majority of possessions due to his defensive threat. He averages just over 1 block per game and has a 67% Field Goal percentage. If the Cougars want to force the issue, they will play inside out basketball and go down low to Keita.
The Cougars play VCU in their first-round matchup in the 6/11 game. Had BYU not lost 4 of their first 6 games in the Big XII, I think they could have been as high as a 4 seed in this tournament. With that being said, I think they got a good draw as they have VCU and then the winner of Wisconsin/Montana to get to the Sweet 16. Don't sleep on the Cougars with their talented roster. Like I said, the game isn't over until the Cougars say it is.
No. 7 St. Mary's
Just one season removed from their 5/12 loss vs Grand Canyon University, the Gaels won their second straight WCC regular season title. They were ranked in the Top 20 for the majority of the season due to their ability to blow out teams. They weren't great teams, but they were blowing out the WCC schools. They beat Gonzaga 2x in the regular season and that is where its list of good wins ends. They had opportunities against Arizona St, Boise St, Utah St, and San Francisco which were all losses.
They come into the tournament as the first overall #7 seed again due to their ability to blow teams out. I think this team may be a 10 seed or lower in a "real conference". As of yet, the Gaels have not announced a move to the MWC or Pac-12 as initially anticipated. After Gonzaga leaves next season, it is only a matter of time before the WCC folds and St. Marys should want to be out well before that. The Gaels have a distinct advantage against their opponent and it comes on the offensive glass. Ranking #2 nationally in offensive boards, bringing one down on 41% of possessions. That combined with the fact that they are the SLOWEST team in the country with a pace of 20.2 sec per possession and 61 possessions per game both rank at #359 nationally.
If you are allowing a team that plays slow and methodical additional free possessions, it is not going to end well for you. The Gaels also play amazing defense as they rank nationally #8 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They hold their opponents to 31% from 3 and 45% from 2. A slow team that is forcing you to take bad shots is a nightmare scenario for a lot of teams. St. Mary's plays against Vanderbilt in the first round in the 7/10 matchup in Cleveland. While I think St. Mary's can win this game on defense alone, Vanderbilt has been a juggernaut killer this season. Don't be surprised if we see our first bracket upset in this game.
No. 8 Mississippi St
Coming into the season, many fans had high hopes for this Mississippi St squad and I got the heat because I said they were going to finish 8th or 9th in the SEC and it had nothing to do with this squad but everything to do with the overall power of the top half of the SEC. They got 14 teams into the big dance for christ sakes. Each and every SEC game was a battle of who could score more points and #1 was taking down #15 and then the next night, the #2 was losing by 15 to #7.
This Miss St squad is going to live and die by their offense as most of the SEC squads do and it is going to come down to whether or not they can score the rock from inside the 3-point arc. The Bulldogs rank #297 nationally in 3-point offense and #314 in 3-point defense. If Mississippi St wants a chance to win this game, they are going to have to score and score in bunches. They do rank #17 nationally in blocks and #16 in steals on defense which will bode well for them giving them extra possessions. The issue lies solely on defending the 3-point arc and scoring inside.
The local kid from Madison Mississippi, Josh Hubbard, has led this squad to this point averaging 19/2/3 this season on 40/88/35 splits. The issue is that for a team that averages 80 ppg, he is the only scorer who averages more than 10 ppg. If Hubbard is having an off night, which we have seen in games this season, the bulldogs could be bounced in the first round vs Baylor.
No. 9 Baylor
In what was considered a down year for Baylor considering the expectations of rookie phenom VJ Edgecombe and the talent that Scott Drew put around him, The Baylor Bears are back in the dance. They finished .500 in a top loaded Big XII with the #16 ranked offense nationally based on adjusted efficiency and #25 in offensive rebounds, this Baylor squad has what it takes to be good. The issue is whether or not they can put it together on defense. This is the first year in which they didnt have a Top 25 defense over the last 5.
The defense ranks #277 in 3-point defense, #243 in blocks per game, and #254 in offensive rebounds allowing teams additional possessions. On the offensive side of things, Baylor has been solid. They limit turnovers, distribute the ball well from a scoring perspective and limit steals and turnovers. With the 10th hardest schedule nationally, you could say that Baylor met expectations. Putting the entire weight of a team on an rookie is going to put you in a tough spot if they don't perform but even more so if that rookie is playing the 10th hardest schedule nationally.
Edgecombe has averaged 15/5/3 on 43/77/35 splits but the team was really led by Miami transfer Norchad Omier in his senior season. Averaging 16/11/2 this season for the Bears has been the difference maker. Anytime you can have 2 players who average more than 15 points per game, it is usually a recipe for success unless you have a bad defense. While I think that Baylor can win this game vs Mississippi St handily, it is going to rely not only on the success of these 2 guys listed above, but whether or not the defense can slow Mississippi St down.
No. 10 Vanderbilt
We already briefly talked about this team when we were talking about their first round opponent St. Mary's, but to say Vanderbilt exceeded all expectations and then some would be an understatement. The Commodores were picked to finish dead last in the SEC but came away with some massive wins against Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Missouri in SEC play. While they lost a decent sum of games, those marquee wins really pushed them over the hump giving them a #10 seed in the tournament.
Ranking #30 in offense nationally and #84 defensively was more than expected from this squad. The team really struggles shooting it from 3 but also defending the 3 coming in at #240 and #377 respectively in those 2 categories. Vanderbilt also ranks #324 in blocks per possession when they have the ball. This isn't a recipe for a good game for them considering that St. Mary's ranks highly in that category. They do protect the ball well on offense ranking #28 in steals per possession and #73 in non-Steal Turnovers per possession. This game is going to come down to who is controlling the pace. If Vanderbilt contols the pace, I think they can win. If St. Mary's forces them to play slow and meticulously, I think they can lose by 15.
No. 11 VCU
Where do we even start with VCU? They were on the bubble practically all season, depending on where you looked. Some said they would get a bid regardless and others said they needed to win the A10 to lock that up. Regardless of the case, VCU didn't want to leave their tournament hopes to fate so they beat George Mason to lock up another A10 tournament title.
Ranking #45 nationally on offense and #25 nationally on defense is what had them squarely on the bubble for the majority of the season. They rank #1 nationally in defensive eFG%, #22 in 3P% and #4 in 2P%. This team is very good at forcing their opponent to take bad shots and even limiting shots at all. On top of being ranked T25 in all of those categories, they rank #7 in blocks per possession, #31 in Steals per possession, and #97 in non-steal turnovers per possession. This Rams squad is forcing the issue on defense and causing havoc which leads to runouts and free buckets on the other side.
If you are a BYU fan, I think this is a nightmare scenario because the Cougars have feasted on bad defenses in the Big XII this season. If you want a good chance at an upset, look no further than VCU to put clamps on BYU and get the job done in the early game in Denver.
No. 12 Liberty
The Liberty Flames were a force to be reckoned with in the CUSA and their schedule this season. Similarly to other mid-major teams, they can only play the schedule that was put in front of them. They had the #135 overall SOS and did what they could with the opportunities they had. They lost 6 games this season and 4 of them were by a combined 11 points. If you add the other 2 losses, all 6 of their games were lost by a combined 22 points. They are a very good squad that put themselves in a position to win games.
Led by Taelon Peter, the team relied on him and Kaeden Metheny to score the rock as they averaged nearly 40% of the teams scoring every game. Peter and Metheny averaged 13.9 and 13.5 respectively. Coming in with the #77 ranked offense and the #48 ranked defense in the nation and overall #60 in KenPom. They secured a bid solely because they won the CUSA this season. Where this team really thrives is eFG% on both offense and defense ranked #2 and #8 nationally in those categories respectively. They also rank #5 in offense 3P% and #3 in defensive 3P% on the season.
While I don't think that Oregon is a great pull for the Flames, I think there is a world where Liberty moves on to see the winner of Arizona/Akron and that is if they can limit the Ducks from scoring at will which they have proven at times they can do holding several teams to less than 50 in a game. On the offensive side, Metheny is going to have to use his size, experience and talent if they want to upset Oregon as the #12 seed in the East.
No. 13 Akron
As we are getting closer to rounding out this article, we are coming up on the last of the teams that I think have a legitimate shot to pull off an upset in this bracket. The Akron Zips hail out of the MAC and earned the auto bid for that conference after a crazy comeback in the MAC Semi-final game after being down by 14 points late in the second half. Akron is ranked #97 according to KenPom but has a significantly better offense than they do defense. They are a very well-rounded team ranked #48 in 2P%, #34 in 3P% and #84 in FT%.
The issue is that they play at such a quick pace, they are prone to turnovers. They rank #206 in turnovers per possession averaging a steal on 9.9% of possessions. All in all, the MAC is a significant step below the next section of mid-major colleges and even a step lower than the opponents that they will be facing. When we are talking about players, there are low major, mid-major, high major, and then the power 4 guys. Arizona is loaded at the top of the team with dudes who could walk on and start at just about any power 4 program. The skill level is going to be astronomically different. The benefit that Akron is going to hold over Arizona is their overall offensive prowess.
It is going to take a lot for Akron to beat Arizona, but the fact that Akron is so well rounded as far as scoring from anywhere on the floor is going to play to their benefit because Arizona can't just hone in on one person. If you want to see scoring, you are going to want to turn this game on because if Akron is going to beat Arizona, it is going to come from scoring a lot more points!
No. 14 Montana
Hailing out of the Big Sky, you have the big boys of Montana. The GRIZ as some might call them. This team is full of a bunch of DAWGS who just love to play basketball and would take a bullet for their coach. They have 5 dudes on their team who average double figures scoring and 7 guys on their team who shoot better than 50% from the floor. They space the floor well and average 14 assists per game. They are 25-9 on the season but only played 3 games against tournament-eligible schools, and lost each one of those games by an average of 26 points per game.
Their defense is ranked #251 in the country for adjusted efficiency, eFG% is 52.2% which gives them the #249 ranked defense and rank #290 in defensive turnovers. If this team wants to win their game vs Wisconsin, it is going to take a perfect game from the field and Draymond Green is going to have to lace up for them on defense. The Griz havent had a player enter the league and play meaningful time since the 1980 season when John Stroeder played for the Golden State Warriors. When I say that they have a bunch of dudes who just like to play basketball, this is what I mean. The love for the game and being able to play it at the D1 level knowing that they are going to graduate and actually use their degree.
The Truth and the matter is, Wisconsin will probably beat this team by 30 points because there are levels to this shit and the Griz just aren't the team to pull off a 14/3 upset. They don't rebound the ball well, they don't defend well, and they don't force turnovers which means that Wisconsin is going to have their way on offense and if they just play half-assed on defense, they will win easily.
No. 15 Robert Morris
Congratulations to the Robert Morris Colonials, for winning the Horizon league, your reward is getting to play against the #3 offense in the country in Alabama. Led by Riley Wallace Award Finalist, Kam Woods, the Colonials are 26-8 and hail from the Horizon League. Kam Woods transferred after NC State's run to the Final Four where he averaged 15/5/5 for the Colonials in 29 games on 38/60/30 splits. While the splits aren't the greatest, he shows why he is up for the award with the stats.
The adjusted efficiency for offense and defense is #171 and #133 respectively for the Colonials while their turnover % is one of the worst in the country at #252. Their leader Kam Woods averages 3.2 turnovers per game. They average a turnover on 19% of their possessions. Now how in the world do you think you are going to be able to compete with Alabama if you are giving them extra possessions? Alabama plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, they don't need extra possessions.
The one bright side for RMU is that they rank #13 nationally in Non-Stl Turnovers and #58 in the nation in blocks per possession at 11.9% this season. I dont think that there is any possibility that Robert Morris even keeps this game relatively close tomorrow considering that they had the #303 ranked overall SOS and the #351 ranked non-conference SOS. They haven't played a single game or team to even prepare for this type of competition. The Crimson Tide is going to make them look like a deer in the headlights.
No. 16 American/Mount St. Mary's
I am going to keep this one short and sweet. The two teams rank #238 and #292 respectively in KenPom and even worse in Bartorvik. Whichever team that gets the pleasure of playing Duke will likely get to play them without Cooper Flagg which is a little bit of a benefit to them, but not even one worth giving a full writeup to. I am safe in assuming that Coach Schyer and Duke staff is not even preparing for this game. They could put their managers on the court and likely beat either team by double digits.
March Madness Predictions:
VCU > BYU
Oregon Sweet 16 Bound
Baylor beats Duke
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