March Madness Team Break Downs: West
- Jordon Leon
- Mar 18
- 20 min read
The best time of year has finally arrived. If you have been watching College Basketball since October, we finally made it. If you just started watch last week or maybe you wont start watching till Thursday, Welcome in to the best time of year for sports fans!
Whether you are new here, or you are just looking for help on your bracket, I am going to break down each and every team over the course of four different articles to make watching basketball the only thing that you have to worry about. This first article is going to be about breaking down what I will officially be naming as the Death Gauntlet, The West Bracket.
March Madness Team Breakdowns:
No. 1 Florida
When it comes to talking about powerhouses, Florida is among the top as far as that is concerned. The team averages 85.4 points per game led by Walter Clayton and Alijah Martin shown above. After playing four seasons at FAU, following the departure of Coach Dusty May, Martin found a new home just across the Peninsula at UF. The senior talent of Walter Clayton and Alijah Martin paired with Sophomore sensation Alex Condon, everyone knew that Florida was going to be a juggernaut this season. But what they did to teams in both the non-conference as well as the loaded SEC was just unfair.
En route to their 31-4 record, the dismantled just about every team they faced. They won their games by an average of 15.7 points per game with their #3 ranked nationally adjusted offensive efficiency score of 127.7 according to T3Bracketology's Team Sheets. The reason that this team scores so many points is due to not only their explosive offense, but the ability to rebound the basketball and give their team second chances. The team ranks #8 nationally in offensive rebounding led by Alex Condon's 93 offensive boards this season which accounted for nearly 40% of his rebounds this season.
While it isn't something that the team hangs their hat on necessarily, this team is also VERY GOOD on the defensive side of the ball when it seldom isn't falling for the Gators. Ranked #13 nationally for adjusted defensive efficiency pushes this team across the finish line as one of the few teams that I would put money on to win the damn thing if I had to.
Florida plays their first game vs #16 Norfolk State on Friday 3/21 with a spread of -28.5 for this game. There should be very little doubt that Florida will not only win the game, but cover the spread as well vs their first opponent.
No. 2 St. Johns
Led by Big East Star, Kadary Richmond, The Johnnies have been a team to watch all season. Coach Rick Pitino in his second season for the Johnnies had one plan in mind and that was to lead his team to the promised land. Not only did Coach Pitino help lead the Johnnies to their first conference tournament title since 1999-2000 season but also won their first regular season title since the 1984-1985 season.
As the #2 overall seed in the West bracket, the Johnnies may have gotten a shorter end of the stick being placed in this bracket compared to being the first overall #3 seed and being put in the east. Neither here nor there, the Johnnies will be prepped for their contests where ever they have to play. The Johnnies hang their hat on the defense as they rank #2 nationally, only behind Houston in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They aren't going to need to beat you by scoring a ton of points, they are just going to steal the ball a ton, force a lot of turnovers and make you take bad shots.
Averaging nearly 79 points per game is still very good in college basketball at 78.7 points per game. With that being said, the Johnnies only have three players on their team that average more than 10 points per game. If the Johnnies are going to win a series of games in March, it is going to come solely on the backs of Richmond, and Luis in the back court making up for a majority of their scoring. Don't expect teams to get into a race with St. Johns as they like to slow down the offense, run a full court set, and make you pay for mistakes.
St John's plays #15 Omaha in their first game on Thursday 3/20. With a spread of -18.5 in favor of the Johnnies, I think this spread is just a bit too high. While I don't think by any means that St. John's loses this game, there is a sneaky possibility that the Omaha Mavericks cover late in this game. I will break down that team later!
No. 3 Texas Tech
Coming into the season, all eyes were on New Mexico transfer JT Toppin was the story for the Red Raiders. The UNM transfer lived up to all the hype and then some for the Red Raiders in his first season. Toppin lead the Red Raiders with 18.1 points and 9.2 rebounds per game this season which was good for Big XII POY, Newcomer of the year, and Big XII All-Conference First Team. Toppin's splits at 55/32/71 were all close for All-American Team if the Red Raiders would have won the conference, I think Toppin would be in that discussion.
The Red Raiders have been very good this season on both ends of the court. Being #6 nationally for offensive adjusted efficiency and #30 defensive adjusted efficiency in a very tough Big XII. Similarly to the above conversation above for the #2 seed, Texas Tech loves to play VERY SLOW in a full court set and force teams to play them face up. Ranking #273 in the nation averaging 63 offensive possessions per game. As the first #3 overall seed, Texas Tech gets the Witchita regional on Thursday in the last game of the night.
Texas Tech will rely a lot on the back of JT Toppin and Darrion Williams to score a majority of their points in the tournament. With that being said, don't sleep on Chance McMillian to get hot from behind the arc and lead the Red Raiders to victory. For a majority of the season, Chance McMillian was ranked in the top 10 for 3P FG% until he started getting less attempts later in the season due to blowouts vs Lower tiered Big XII teams. At -15.5 current line vs UNCW, the Red Raiders should dominate this game from start to finish. The Red Raiders have an opportunity to turn up the heat in a loaded West Bracket as they have been playing really well as of late.
No 4. Maryland
Led by future #1 overall pick, Freshman Derik Queen, the Maryland Terrapins have been a scary team all season. With the #52 overall strength of schedule in the country, which was helped by a tough BIG 10 schedule as they had the #359 overall non-conference schedule. They only had one team inside the KenPom #250 in the non-conference which was Mount St. Mary's who is currently a #16 seed in the tournament.
Aside from Derik Queen, the reason that this team has been so scary all season in a tough Big 10 schedule is due to the fact that they have five players on their team who all score in double figures outside of Derik Queen. The Terrapins have relied a lot on their defense this season coming in at the #6 overall defense nationally as they love to RUN and RUN FAST. On top of being a top 10 ranked defense, the Terrapins also rank in Top 30 in offensive tempo running almost 70 possessions per game at an average of 15.4 seconds per possession. If the Terrapins can get downhill and the team they are facing isn't good against defending the paint, watch out because the Terrapins may put up 100.
The Terrapins rank #23 in turnovers in the country meaning that not only do they play very fast, they protect the basketball. Typically speaking, teams they play very fast succumb to turnovers, but that is not the case for this Maryland squad. The one downside to this team is that on the defensive side of the ball, they tend to foul a lot, sending the opponent to the free throw line. They come in at sub-275 in that metric this season.
While there is no "stopping" Derrik Queen, anyone who plays the Terrapins should be okay with allowing Derrik Queen to get his and focus on stopping his counterparts. If your sole focus is on defending Derrik Queen, his counterparts will eat you alive. If you can get Derrik Queen in foul trouble early, by all means, do it. But if you can't, you need to live with the fact that he is going to score and just defend the others. One person is not going to win a game for you, but if you allow five dudes to all score in double figures, you are going to lose 9/10 times.
Maryland plays against Grand Canyon University in Seattle on Friday. With a spread at -10.5, this is a very interesting game for me. Maryland will be traveling across the country for a 6+ hour flight while GCU's flight is just over 2 hours. Additionally, GCU ranks #7 nationally in FT's per game due to their willingness to go underneath and get fouled. I think there is a scenario here where the GCU line drops to as low as 7-8 before game time. This will be the first game which I am more confidently selecting an upset in this scenario.
No. 5 Memphis
Coming into the season, the Memphis Tigers had a lot of questions marks. Over the last several seasons, Penny Hardaway has had all of it and then some but never seemed to be able to get over the hump with Memphis. This season was a different story for the AAC champs. Coming in with a strong #72 offensive efficiency and #40 defensive efficiency into the dance, there is a good possibility that we can see a run by Memphis in this tournament.
Led by PJ Haggerty and Dain Dainja on a scoring front, this Memphis squad has the ability to compete with the best of the best this season. Outside of Dainja and Haggerty, the team has relied on Tyrese Hunter, the Iowa State transfer, in the back court this season. Unfortunately coming into this tournament, Hunter is questionable due to an injury sustained in the AAC semi final game vs Tulane. With the status on Tyrese Hunter unknown, it is going to be critical for Penny Hardaway to plan accordingly. If I was Penny, you have to plan that you aren't going to have him and then if you do great.
How do you beat Memphis? You have to force turnovers. This season, the teams that have beat Memphis have been aggressive on the defensive side of the ball and forcing turnovers. Ranking #272 in Steals % and #299 in Non-Steal TO% turnovers and additionally ranking #306 in the nation in turnovers per possession this season, if Penny & Co cannot limit their turnovers, I think they run the risk of being bounced early. The Tigers are 16-1 in their last 17 games this season and are one of the hottest team in the country.
Memphis travels across the country to Seattle and play their first round game against another scorching hot team from the MWC in Colorado State. Memphis will be the first ever #5 in the expanded March Madness era to be an underdog vs a #12 seed. With the +2.5 spread, I think the Tigers have a lot to prove.
No. 6 Missouri
The team that very few people thought were going to be where they are at this point in the season. Predicted to finish 13th in the SEC was definitely a far cry from where they are now. Led by Mark Mitchell, a transfer from ACC Powerhouse Duke, Mitchell has done an amazing job transitioning to the SEC. Averaging 14/5/2 and leading a team expected to completely miss the tournament is huge accomplishment for the Junior guard from Kansas City. Closely similar to a lot of teams in the SEC, The Tigers have done a phenomenal job hanging their hat solely on scoring more points than their opponents.
Ranking #6 in the country for adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. Missouri has done an amazing job in basically everything related to having the ball in their hand. They rank Top 50 in all of the following offensive categories: eFG%, 2P%, Turnover %, 3P%, Non-Steal turnover %, and FT/FG%. If it is related to scoring, it is fairly safe to assume that the Missouri Tigers are good at it.
The Tigers got a rough draw with arguably the best #11 seed in the entire field against the Drake Bulldogs. While I think that Missouri wins this game handily, with a spread of -6.5, I think there is a fair chance that Drake can cover this spread and have a chance to win late. I will talk about it more in the Drake breakdown, but they are good on defense. So if one thing goes wrong for the Tigers, watch out, because we could have an upset on our hands.
No. 7 Kansas
Coming into one of the most confusing teams in this bracket. Are they good? Are they bad? Its really unclear. There was certain times this season when I thought that Kansas could really compete as a title contender and then there were times when I was concerned that they would even win 1 game. Coming into the season as Pre-season #1 and then finishing unranked is certainly something.
In what feels like Hunter Dickinson's 32nd season in college basketball, he comes in as pre-season NPOY, and he does not live up to the hype of that. While he did average 17/10 this season, it seemed like anytime that the Jayhawks really needed him, he fell into this abyss of not scoring, not rebounding and just kind of taking up space on the court. What makes this Kansas team special is their ability to defend the ball. Ranked #11 nationally for defensive eFG% shows that Kansas can compete with the best if they wanted to.
Where the team struggles, is offensively with empty possessions due to turnovers and Non-Steal Turnovers. Kansas has been known to be very careless with the ball as of late resulting in the opponent having tons of breakout opportunities or just simply having more possessions due to the turnovers. The Jayhawks are 5-5 in their last 10 games scoring less than 70 in 6 of those 10 games. You can have the best defense in the country but you cant win games if you don't score the rock.
Kansas plays against Calipari and Arkansas on Thursday in a battle of two HOF coaches. The current spread is Kansas -4.5 but I could see Arkansas winning this game outright if they force turnovers and rattle Kansas.
No. 8 UCONN
Oh UCONN, where do we even begin? Prior to this season, I heard many people say, "Don't sleep on Uconn, they wont lose". I told several of those people to tell me who was going to step up and lead the squad with Clingan and Castle both going to the NBA and the resounding answer was "don't worry about it". The back to back national champions not only end up with the #8 seed in the tournament but also have a VERY TOUGH road if they want to try and 3-peat.
Solo Ball, McNeeley, and Karaban answered the call for approximately 60% of the scoring that they lost from their NBA stars last season, but what happened to the rest of it? Exactly what I thought was going to happen did. The firepower was just not the same as it was the passed two seasons which resulted in this ranking. Uconn has done a great job this season competing but a majority of their wins came from Sub-150 teams in KenPom which inflates their predictive metrics like Providence, Georgetown, and Depaul. Offensively Uconn has been solid with a variety of different players scoring in small bunches.
Their issue has been their inability to stop their opponent on defense. In their 10 losses this season, their opponents have averaged nearly 80 points per game and in three separate occasions scoring more than 90. They fail to cause turnovers on defense ranking #259 in defensive turnovers, #333 in FT's awarded and #257 in 3P% allowed. If Uconn had a captain that could step up and lead the defense in a gritty battle, I think they could be a solid contender but I just don't think that they have a Clingan type guy this year.
Uconn faces off against #9 Oklahoma on Thursday with a current spread of Uconn -4.5 in favor. I personally think that Oklahoma got the SEC bias in the draw and I don't think they should be anywhere near the tournament with a 6-12 conference record. Give me the Huskies by double digits.
No. 9 Oklahoma
The fall of Oklahoma has been an insane sight to see. Oklahoma started the season on a rampage wining 13 of their first 13 games en route to a top 10 ranking with wins over ranked Arizona, ranked Michigan, and ranked Louisville at the time. Almost no one thought that Oklahoma could be stopped and some were even calling for an Oklahoma outright title in the SEC. Then BOOM, conference play hit and i think Porter Moser fell off the plane and hit his head or something. After starting the season 13-0, Oklahoma went 3-7 in their first 10 games in the SEC and all hope was lost. Oklahoma fans were crying, Norman was on fire and no one knew what to do.
The SEC was arguably the toughest conference through and through this season and it wasn't close. Oklahoma was in their first year, so there was surely going to be some growing pains, but this seemed like more than that. The team simply didn't look the same as they did in the non-conference. After starting SEC playa t 3-7, it didn't get much better as they went 3-9 for the remainder of the season only winning 6 games in SEC play. The non-con play and the wins over tournament teams Miss St, Arkansas, and Missouri is what kept them afloat in the tournament. If they have one less out of those three wins, they may be on the outside looking in to the party.
The Sooners only have Fears and Moore who score more than 10 ppg this season which is what caused them so many losses this season. You can't win many games without scorers. If one of those two guys is off, you can consider that a loss. In the SEC, both of those guys could still go off and you would lose do to the offensive outbursts in the SEC. Ranking #21 in the nation in offensive efficiency this season is in large part due to their #15 overall SOS because being able to score on the big dogs improves those predictive metrics. On the defensive side of the ball, Oklahoma doesn't do much good ranking sub 150 in 2P%, FT%, turnovers, and 3P%. Teams are simply bullying them underneath and causing them to lose games.
Oklahoma plays against Uconn and is a 4.5 point dog. I don't think that Oklahoma has a solid chance in this game unless they can figure out how to plug the holes in the ship and quick. If Oklahoma allows Clingan down low, they can get on the bus at halftime. Give me Uconn by double digits.
No. 10 Arkansas
Oh boy, where do we even start with Arkansas? John Calipari leaves Kentucky after basically being run out of Lexington and heads down south to another SEC school. When he joins the conference, someone asked him what his plans were with the team. His response was "What team? We have no one". This was a few short months prior to the season, so you could see how his young tenure was going in Fayetteville.
Led by Adou Thiero this season after Boogie Fland went down with injury, his 16/6 was doing a lot for the team this season. Over the last 5 games in the season, Arkansas looked like they were starting to click going 4-1 with wins over Missouri, Mississippi St, Texas and Vanderbilt. These wins were on the backs of their offense averaging 87 PPG in those games. The thing that Arkansas has to do is be able to show consistency. This season they go from scoring 90 points one night to scoring 50 just two nights later. If they are able to win their first game against Kansas, it is only going to get tougher and consistency of either offense or defense is going to be needed to be successful.
The length of Arkansas has saved them as they are #8 in the country in blocks per game this season and #60 in eFG% on defense. I think that Arkansas has a better shot to win a few games in this tournament if they hang their hat on their defense and let Thiero go to work. If they try to outshoot a team in a barn burner, I think they lose more often than they win.
No. 11 Drake
The Drake Bulldogs are a VERY fun team. One of the mid-major teams to watch in the dance this season. They lost a combined three games this season by a total of 13 points. Bennett Stirtz has an argument for an All-American vote when it is all said and done. Averaging 19/5/6 on 49/39/80 splits is argument enough for that award. Stirtz leads his team in points per game, assists per game, minutes per game, and steals.
If there is one team that I am rooting for to get a first round win in the dance this year, it is the Drake Bulldogs. Not just because I root for the little guys, but because I truly think that they have the firepower to do so. They rank #1 in the country in Steal % per game allowing themselves additional possessions while also being very good at defending the glass and getting offensive board which allows for second chance points. If you want to beat an SEC team, you are going to have to give yourself as many opportunities as possible to score the rock. Their only real "downside" is the fact that they can't seem to defend from inside the 3-point arc. It is a mixture of being slow off the dribble, but also trying to go for steals leaves them open for dribble drives. Ranking #303 in the nation in that category.
Drake plays against Missouri in the first round of the tournament and are going to need to be almost perfect if they want a chance to win this first round game. Force teams to play outside in, don't drive on you, and don't overcommit to the steal opportunity. As a 6.5 point dog on Thursday, I love the Drake Bulldogs to cover with a sprinkle on the outright dog.
No. 12 Colorado State
In my podcast episode talking about the Mountain West pre-season, I talked a lot about how Nique Clifford was going to be the X-factor for the Rams this season and boy was he. After withdrawing from the NBA draft in 2023-24 season to come back for his senior year, he told him team he wanted to win the damn thing. The Rams won the MWC tournament title giving them the guaranteed bid into the tournament behind 19/10/5 for Clifford this season.
The Colorado St Rams are one of the most intriguing teams entering the tournament because of how hot they have been as of late. They have won 10 straight including the MWC tournament and only losing four of their last 20 games. They were one game off of winning the MWC regular season as a Co-Champion.
Colorado St plays a very slow and meticulous game of basketball. Their adjusted tempo being #252 in the nation forces teams to be VERY good with the basketball because they know that they aren't going to have unlimited opportunities with the ball. They rank Top-50 in every misc offensive category leaning heavily on that half-court offense, running sets and getting the ball inside. The Rams rank #26 nationally in 2P% offense and #46 nationally from 3P%.
Colorado St plays Memphis and Penny Hardaway on Friday and are the first team to be a favorite as a 12-seed in the tournament. Headed up to Seattle for what could be the battle of the ages. I could see a world where Memphis doesn't score 60 and Colorado St wins by 6+.
No. 13 Grand Canyon
The Pre-season hopes were so high for this squad. There were so many opportunities for good wins but the Lopes could not capitalize on those games. Going 1-5 in Q1/Q2 games, pushed GCU from preseason T25 hopefuls to needing a WAC Tournament victory in order to make the tournament. Being a good team, in a less than successful mid-major, makes scheduling difficult for GCU. No one good wants to come play GCU at their home because they have more to lose than they do to gain which forces GCU to play tons of buy games. GCU was 14-1 in Q4 opportunities this season and 9-2 in Q3 games.
GCU won the games that were put in front of them, but in order to be where pre-season pundits had them, they needed to win those Q1 and Q2 games and they didn't do that. GCU ranks #67 in defense in the nation and #30 in eFG% on defense. They have really hung their hat on the defense this season in the WAC which led to that 14-3 conference record. GCU plays a tough game of basketball which leads to runouts on the other end of the court for the Lopes. Because they play for runouts a lot, they rank #34 in adjusted tempo because more often than not, they are not playing that slow half-court and creating sets.
GCU ranks #7 in the country in points from the free throw line this season by getting downhill and forcing teams to foul you because they cant get in front of you to stop them. Led by Seniors Jakobe Coles and Tyon Grant Foster, the Lopes not only have experience, but they have the P4 talent to compete with some of these high major teams that a lot of other Mid-Majors don't have. GCU faces off against #4 seeded Maryland on Friday in Seattle. GCU will have a large contingent of fans in attendance and will rely on the Havocs to make this game feel like a home game at Climate Pledge Arena. With GCU a 10.5 point dog, I expect this line to move in favor of GCU. I like this game to be close late with GCU having an opportunity to win the game.
No. 14 UNCW
The Seahawks are an intriguing team in the tournament. The low seed is due to their resume given the CAA doesn't give them a ton of opportunities to prove themselves and with the #311 Non-conference schedule, they didn't do themselves many favors. UNCW as I mentioned above, didn't have a ton of opportunities to prove themselves, and when they did, they didn't impress the predictive metrics. Hanging around the middle of the pack at #84 for offensive efficiency and #150 for defensive efficiency is not great considering their competition. If UNCW wanted to be a higher seed, they needed to blow out teams in the CAA which they didn't do.
UNCW does a really good job at giving the team second chance opportunities on the glass. They rank #28 in the nation for offensive rebounding % and #48 in Free Throw Attempts per game. While I don't think that UNCW even keeps this game relatively close vs Texas Tech simply due to the size and talent, I think that this is going to be a great opportunity for UNCW on the national stage to show out for the CAA.
No. 15 Omaha
If you are in Omaha Nebraska, hide your trashcans. If you don't know that reference, you haven't watched enough college basketball. Omaha destroys a trashcan with the logo of their opponent for every game that they win. Omaha has proven themselves on the offensive side of the ball but haven't done much of anything on the defensive end. Ranking #252 nationally on the defensive side of the ball and coming in at sub-200 in just about every meaningful category that there is to define a team on the defense.
Omaha plays St. John's on Thursday and I think that the offense is going to sputter vs the VERY GOOD St. John's defense. The Mavericks are massive dogs in this game for a good reason and its because they couldn't stop water from coming into their boat if they had another boat. Omaha has smashed their last trashcan last week when they beat St. Thomas.
No. 16 Norfolk State
I am going to start this short writeup with, if you have watched MEAC basketball before the conference tournament, I am officially granting you with your #SickoCommittee membership card. From top to bottom, this conference is disgusting. The Spartans rank #217 in adjusted defense and #161 in adjusted offense. They were 8-2 headed into conference tournament play which might seem good on the surface, until you realize that the average KenPom ranking for those 10 teams was 301.
The Spartans have two players on their team that score more than 10 points per game and they are led by senior guard Brian Moore who averaged 18/4/3 this season for the Spartans. This is the simple case of, we are better than you and we are going to prove to the world that we are the #1 seed for a reason. The spread in this game is Florida -29 and I expect them to cover every part of that and probably be sitting their starters with about 10-15 minutes left in the half. If nothing else, this is a great opportunity for the Spartans to show off what talent they do have and giving the young guys the opportunity to play against tough talent.
Predictions:
Arkansas to the S16
GCU > Maryland
Colorado St to the S16
Texas Tech Final Four Run
Comments