The 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament lacked the traditional upsets that characterize March Madness. This trend has sparked discussions about the impact of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) agreements on the competitive balance within college basketball. With fewer Cinderella stories and more dominant performances by high-seeded programs, some analysts and fans are questioning whether NIL is undermining the essence of March Madness.
The Rise of NIL and Its Influence on College Basketball
Since the Supreme Court's 2021 decision in NCAA v. Alston, athletes have been permitted to profit from their NIL, leading to significant financial opportunities, particularly at larger programs with substantial donor bases. This shift has fundamentally altered college basketball, allowing wealthier schools to recruit and retain elite talent through lucrative NIL deals.
For years, March Madness has thrived on the unpredictability of lower-seeded teams knocking off powerhouse programs. The rise of NIL has changed that dynamic, as traditional blue-blood programs can now offer substantial financial incentives to players, keeping top-tier talent concentrated among a few elite schools. As a result, mid-major programs, which historically relied on experience and team chemistry to compete with bigger schools, are struggling to retain their top players.
Financial Disparities and Tournament Outcomes
The influence of NIL is evident in the financial disparities among programs. For instance, the University of Arkansas, bolstered by significant contributions from billionaire donor John H. Tyson, has reportedly amassed at least $5 million in NIL funds. This financial advantage has facilitated the recruitment of top talent and high-profile coaching staff, contributing to their success in the tournament, including a notable upset over Kansas in the first round.
In contrast, mid-major programs often lack the financial backing to compete in this new landscape. Previously, schools like Loyola Chicago, Florida Gulf Coast, and Saint Peter’s captured the nation’s imagination with deep tournament runs. However, with NIL playing a larger role in player retention and recruitment, these schools are now losing their best players to wealthier programs before they have the chance to develop into tournament contenders.
The Decline of Cinderella Stories
A defining feature of March Madness has been the rise of Cinderella teams—low-seeded squads that defy the odds to pull off stunning upsets. This year, however, the tournament has witnessed the fewest number of upsets in recent history. This trend raises the question: Has NIL made it nearly impossible for underdog programs to compete at the highest level?
Historically, upsets have been fueled by experienced mid-major teams taking on freshman-heavy powerhouses. But with NIL in play, elite programs can now retain veteran players by offering them substantial financial incentives. This shift has led to more balanced, experienced rosters at the top, making it increasingly difficult for underdogs to break through.
Impact on Fan Engagement
The changing landscape has also affected fan engagement. A recent study by CivicScience indicates that 25% of fans intend to watch less basketball this year due to the NIL economy, suggesting a perceived erosion of the tournament's unpredictability. Another statistic shows that the percentage of U.S. residents following the NCAA tournaments has declined compared to previous years, with NIL dynamics cited as a contributing factor. This shift suggests that the predictability resulting from financial disparities may be dampening the excitement traditionally associated with March Madness.
Coaches' Perspective: NIL’s Double-Edged Sword
Many coaches have expressed mixed feelings about NIL. While some believe it provides long-overdue compensation for athletes, others argue that it has created an unfair playing field. Mid-major coaches have become increasingly frustrated with the transfer portal, as players often leave for wealthier programs that can offer substantial NIL deals.
One anonymous mid-major coach recently stated, “We’re no longer developing players for our program. We’re developing players for the transfer portal. If a guy has a breakout season, we know we’ll lose him to a power conference school with deep NIL pockets.”
On the other hand, high-major coaches see NIL as an opportunity to maintain roster stability. Programs like Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas have historically lost their best players to the NBA Draft after just one season. Now, with NIL, these programs can entice top talent to stay for multiple years, creating more experienced and dominant teams.
Looking Ahead: Can Competitive Balance Be Restored?
As NIL agreements continue to reshape college athletics, stakeholders must consider strategies to preserve the competitive balance that has historically defined March Madness. Implementing measures to support smaller programs and ensure equitable opportunities for athletes across all schools may be essential to maintaining the tournament's allure and unpredictability.
Some potential solutions include:
Revenue Sharing Models: The NCAA could explore revenue-sharing agreements that provide mid-major programs with additional financial resources to compete in NIL. *This is something, while has not been fully approved yet, is in the works.
NIL Cap or Regulations: While it may be difficult to enforce, creating a structured NIL cap could prevent the wealthiest programs from monopolizing top talent.
Stronger Support for Mid-Major Programs: The NCAA could offer additional financial incentives or NIL collectives targeted specifically at mid-major schools to keep their rosters intact.
Conclusion: The Changing Face of March Madness
While NIL agreements have empowered athletes and modernized college sports, their unintended consequences on competitive balance warrant careful examination to safeguard the essence of March Madness. The magic of the tournament has always been its unpredictability—the Cinderella stories, buzzer-beaters, and David-vs-Goliath matchups that make it special. If NIL continues to concentrate talent among a select few programs, the tournament risks losing one of its most defining characteristics.
As college basketball moves forward in the NIL era, the challenge will be finding a way to allow players to benefit financially while preserving the parity and excitement that have made March Madness a national phenomenon.