After starting the season 15-1 with their only loss coming to Auburn on a last second buzzer beater, Iowa St has now lost three of their last three games and four of the last six. So what has changed over the last three weeks that has left Iowa St so vulnerable? Over the last six games, Iowa St has lacked a single player with that "killer mentality" and I think that is what is causing them to lose games down the stretch.
Can Iowa State fans pin this on anyone?
For the first 16 games of the season when Iowa St went 15-1, Keshon Gilbert seemed to always answer the call for the Cyclones. He was leading the team in points per game, points per possession, playing time, created shots, and FG% during that 15-1 streak of games. Over the last 5 games, Gilbert has only surpassed his average points per game one time when he had 21 against UCF in a blowout win. Gilbert was named to the Oscar Robertson Award Watch list, which awards the best player in the country the award every year following the Final Four.
Since we started watching the decline of Keshon Gilbert over the last several games, we have seen Cyclones starter Curtis Jones burst onto the stage averaging nearly 39 minutes per game over the last four games. His issue is his streaky and inconsistent play. After the ASU game, a media reporter for Sun Devil Daily asked Jones this question. "How do you continue to shoot the ball when it feels like it won't fall"? The response from the senior guard was simple, "I have been playing long enough to know that I need to keep shooting, I made the next six after missing the first four, right"?
Has the combined FG% of their two-star players been the reason for their demise? During this three-game losing streak, the two-star players have averaged just a measly 28.9% from the field. When the team is relying on two of their star guards who on the season, average 40% of the team's points per game aren't making their shots, what do you do?
What is Coach Otzelberger going to do?
For a majority of the season, Iowa St was firmly sitting on that coveted No. 1 seed and sitting in ultimately lock status for an at-large bid. While the hopes of an at-large bid are very much still a reality, it is going to take some praying if Iowa State wants to regain that coveted No. 1 seed. Per KenPom, Iowa St is projected to win their next four games, all by double digits. Can Coach O just "let the team work itself out"? Or is it going to take some magic from the Coach to reignite that fire in the team?
A three-game losing streak for any team can be demoralizing, but even more so for a team that has been sitting atop the mountain with such high hopes all season, it can spell the end. I think Coach Otzelberger needs to step in and reignite the fire in this team and it needs to be done quickly. Whether it is shaking up the starting five, or adjusting lineups, we need to see this team start clicking again. It has been nearly two weeks since we have seen the Iowa State that we all know and love.
After their win against Arizona State on the road just over two weeks ago, it seems like everything has come falling apart and the bus was left for scrap on the side of the road in Tempe.
Is there a world where Iowa State loses out on a single-digit seed?
Short answer, absolutely not. I think that Iowa State would need to at a minimum lose seven of their last ten games for this to even be considered a possibility. Luckily for Iowa State fans, the squad plays the likes of Colorado, TCU, UCF, and Oklahoma State before the end of the season making them, in the worst-case scenario a 4-6 team down the stretch. With that being said, they are likely to revenge their loss against Kansas St to end the season as well as play Cincy at home.
I think it is more likely that this team will win atleast six or seven of their last ten games. That will still drop them off the face of the mountain from where they were just two short weeks ago, but nowhere near that No.10 or No.11 spot in the bracket.
If I was the Coach in Ames, how would I rectify the issues?
While I am not the Coach, and I have great respect for Coach Otzelberger, here is what I would do to try and stop the bleeding and right the ship at the same time. It seems like Iowa State has gotten away from its defensive-first mentality. First things first, I am going to get the team back to what they are good at. Now I am by no means saying that this team can't compete on the offensive side of the ball, but they are just better defensively.
The Cyclones have allowed each team they have faced to shoot better than 44% from the field in every game since that first conference loss against West Virginia. Before that game, Iowa State was tied for 2nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Just two weeks later, they are ranked sixth in the nation. While it might be boring, defense wins games. You don't need to score 100 points in a game if you can hold your opponents to 50.
After we right the ship defensively, my next goal is going to be getting Keshon Gilbert back into the right frame of mind. Before the team's slump, he was averaging nearly 30% of the team's points alone. Whether you are playing him in the pick and roll, putting him into isolation, or allowing him to drive to the basket, he NEEDS to get his groove back if you want to win games in March.
The last thing that I would do is slow down your game a little bit. You are the number sixth-ranked team in the nation playing hard-nosed defense on one end, but then forcing your team to run up the court as fast as they can and throw up the first shot that they see. Iowa State ranks twenty-seventh in the nation in tempo or time of possession at just a meager 14.6 seconds per offensive possession. Slowing the game down allows you to run more sets, and affect the game on a different level.
Regardless of the result of Iowa State's season, it is going to take a lot for them to not get a favorable draw in March and they will likely right the ship and win a few games in the process. What Coach Otzelberger has done in Ames, Iowa is simply short of amazing. I think any Iowa State fan would say the same, but what he hasn't done is bring them a national championship. I have faith that Coach Otzelberger is going to right the ship with his guys, every team stumbles. It's just a matter of when you stumble and how you recover. I think all the Iowa State fans would agree that they would rather stumble now than in March!
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