Over the last several years, Grand Canyon University Basketball has been known as one of the premier locations to play basketball. They are on a quest to 3-peat in the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) and they won their first March Madness game last year against No. 5 St. Mary's and had No. 4 Alabama on the ropes before losing in the Round of 32. Coming into this season, they had reigning WAC POY in Tyon Grant-Foster and returned 80% of their scoring from the 2023-2024 roster. As far as the world was concerned, they were at the top of the mountain and had a target on their back.
Setting the Stage for GCU:
Coming out of the gate, the Lopes stumbled out of the gate losing two of their first four and four of their first nine. Since then, GCU has gone on a run losing just one game in their last ten. With that being said, they have their toughest challenge to date with Seattle University and Utah Valley University coming to town this week.
It seems like the entire team is clicking and it every game, it is just a matter of time before the Lopes open the flood gates against their opponents. They have won five of six WAC games this season by an average of 14 PPG. Their only loss comes on the road to Utah Valley who they play their return game this weekend. According to KenPom, The Lopes are projected to win these two games vs Seattle U and UVU by nine and eight points respectively. What do the Lopes have to do, not only to win these two games, but to win by a considerable margin to continue improving the metrics for themselves? Currently at No. 91 in KenPom and the Net, the Lopes are likely finding themselves on the 13 line come March Madness if they can't improve the predictive metrics. Two wins this weekend will likely improve their ranking a sizeable amount if they can cover the metrics accordingly. I am going to break down each game below so you don't have to!
GCU Vs Seattle:
Coming off of a two game losing streak, the RedHawks are going to have a tough time in their game vs the Lopes. This game will kick off Thursday Night at 8PM local time. The key to beating the RedHawks is going to be a mix of good defense and good offense. Coming into this game, Seattle is ranked No. 160 in KenPom, all with metrics that are looking VERY ROUGH. The Red Hawks rank No. 209 and No. 295 in 3P% and 2P% respectively on offense. A lot of their games have been very low scoring, a lot of which have also been losses.
On the defensive side of the ball, it is going to take but a "decent" shooting effort at home for the Lopes and I think they should win this game handily. The RedHawks rank No. 244 and No. 314 in 3P% and 2P% respectively on defense. The one thing that the RedHawks are very good at is limiting opponents trips to the foul line. They are No. 41 in the country for # of trips to the foul line per game on the defensive side of the ball. GCU has the talent to win this game without needing to earn 25% of their points from the free throw line. GCU ranks No. 5 in the country for that metric, if it sounds high, it probably is!
Keys to the game vs Seattle:
Play smart basketball
Limit turnovers on offense and take smart shots on defense. The RedHawks aren't good on defense. Slow the game down, play your basketball, and take smart shots
Focus on "causing chaos"
GCU ranks No. 61 in blocked shots per game and No. 20 in Steals per game. If you have an opportunity to afford yourself an extra possession or two. TAKE THE OPPORTUNITY
Defend the 3-point arc
If you can force this RedHawks team to play off the 3-point line and you are forcing them to make good shots, that No. 295 ranking on 2P% is going to appear VERY FAST!
Have Fun
Don't force the game to come to you and don't play down to your opponents. GCU has been playing with their opponents recently and putting themselves in a position to lose a game late. Don't be stupid, WIN THE DANG GAME
GCU Vs UVU:
Now this game is where we get to have some fun. GCU has already lost to this team this season. Remember, it is their only loss on the young conference season, meaning GCU is looking to exact revenge in this spot on their home court. GCU has the opportunity to pull within .5 games of first place with a win on Saturday.
The last time these two teams faced off, it resulted in a 72-64 win for the Wolverines and Dominic Nelson had 21 points for the Wolverines. Overall this was a great outing for the Wolverines, not because they played to really win the game, it was the fact that GCU played to not lose and they capitalized late in that game. UVU only shot 36% from 2P range and an even worse 31% from the 3P range. UVU did have several more opportunities as they took nearly 10 more shots than GCU did in that game. GCU also had two starters foul out which hurt them tremendously.
Keys to the game:
Force more 3-point shots from the Wolverines
The Wolverines are very smart at playing basketball, they know that they aren't good from outside, No. 314 in 3P% hitting only 30.4% of their shots from there. GCU ranks No. 51 in 3P defense. Force them to beat you from the outside. Don't allow easy shots on the inside!
Cause Chaos:
Similarly to the game against Seattle, Utah Valley ranks No. 266 in offensive turnover % at a turnover on nearly 11% of possessions. Force turnovers with the loud crowd and home, and use your speed to cause runouts and transition points.
Limit Dominic Nelson:
This season Dominic Nelson had 52/30/70 splits shooting the basketball for UVU. Outside of him in the last game, the Wolverines offense didn't look amazing. Force someone else to beat you in the game. While he is going to get his, don't allow him to get 40% of the points for the team
Regardless of the decisions that are made this weekend, this is going to be arguably the two toughest games that GCU is going to play at home to date. A best case scenario has GCU going 2-0 against these two squads and setting themselves up nicely down the stretch to win a 3rd WAC title. Going 1-1 sets you behind the curve as you likely lose the game against UVU putting you two games behind the eight ball. If you want any semblance of a shot at winning the conference in March, you absolutely cannot go 0-2 at home this weekend!
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