Each and every season as we roll around to November. Every team is going to be looking forward to the most coveted time of the year. March is the holy grail for a College Basketball Player because it means that we have finally come to conference tournaments, meaningful basketball games, and most importantly, MARCH MADNESS.
For some universities, the only way to get into March Madness is going to be winning your conference tournament. Not saying that games leading up to March don't matter, but if you can win 3 games in 3 days, none of the last 4 months really matters for these schools.
Conferences like Big West, WAC, ASUN, among other conferences, rely solely on the automatic bid to get a team into the dance and on the national stage. Last season, only 12 teams that were considered "at-large" recipients won their conference tournament. This means that there is plenty of room for what some might call a "Cinderella story" to go on a run and put their university on the map.
The Atlantic Sun was the first conference to release their full bracket for their conference tournament as it begins on Sunday March 2nd. In this article, I am going to break down the likely winner, and one or two "dark horses" that I think really have a shot to win the Automatic Bid for the ASUN. Before we do that, lets shed some light on the teams that are even in the tournament.
Who is in the ASUN?
A lot of people likely don't even know what the ASUN is, Who plays in the ASUN, and most importantly, who are the heavy hitters? As you can see in the graphic above, the ASUN is comprised solely of teams in the South East.
Four of the eleven teams reign out of Florida, while the remainder come from six of the nine states remaining in that bottom right quadrant of the United States. The entire conference is comprised of the following:
Stetson
Jacksonville
FGCU (Dunk U)
North Florida
Jacksonville St
North Alabama
Central Arkansas
Lipscomb
Bellarmine
Liberty
Kennesaw St
Liberty University has won the ASUN three out of the last six years, but hasn't won since 2021. The ASUN has really been a mixed bag over the last three years as a different team has represented them in every year since 2021. In 2024, Stetson made their first dance in school history before being faced up against the #1 overall seed in Uconn. In 2022, Bellarmine University made their first dance in school history, BUT, were still in their transition period so were robbed of an opportunity to dance to Jacksonville State.
Last season's representative really isn't even in the running this season as they are the #9 seed in this year's ASUN tournament, Stetson University. Outside of Liberty, another team to keep in mind from this conference is going to be this years #1 seed, Lipscomb University in Nashville Tennessee.
Realistic ASUN Winners:
The ASUN tournament is hosted on the home campuses of the higher seeded university. So unlike most conference tournaments where a home court is irrelavant, because they play neutral site, this is not the case for Lipscomb University. The #1 seeded Lipscomb will not need to leave the state of Tennessee until they either get placed in the March Madness bracket or they leave for their first road bout of 2025-2026 season.
While Lipscomb and University of North Alabama (UNA) both finished the season 14-4, Lipscomb won the conference's tie breaker to get the #1 overall seed in the tournament. Considering the fact that home court advantage means so much in this tournament, it seems very unlikely to see anyone other than the #1 or possibly #2 seed realistically winning this tournament.
The two teams split the season series both winning their home bouts against the other. UNA is led by Junior Guard Jacari Lane. He leads the team in points, assists, and FG%. Over the last 5 games, he is averaging 21 points a game as the Lions are 4-1. He has a season high 32 points against Samford in a 97-96 OT loss early in the season. He averages 18/4/5 against Lipscomb this season, so if it comes down to the #1 and #2 seed facing off in the final, watch out for this man to lead UNA to victory.
From Lipscomb's front, they are led by 6'8" forward Jacob Ognacevic. While the team has four players averaging double digit scoring, none is more important that Jacob. Ognacevic is averaging 20.3/8/2 this season for the Bison. He has averaged 24/7 over his last five games leading the Bisons to a 4-1 record over the last 5. Ognacevic averaged 18/6 against UNA this season. If Lipscomb wants to represent the ASUN in March Madness, it is going to have to come on the back of Ognacevic. The Bisons are going to need someone other than Jacob to step up considering that everyone knows who teams are going to key in on. In the Bison's 6 losses this season, Ognacevic only averaged 15.33 points, which is 6 points off his season average. If Jacob is off for just one night or even half of a night, the Bison are very vulnerable.
ASUN Dark Horse:
I am going to completely skip over the #3 and the #4 seed because that wouldn't be a dark horse, IN MY OPINION. For our Dark Horse in the ASUN to win the conference tournament, I am going to go with the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (EKU). Led by Sophmore Guard George Kimble III, Kimble averages 18 points per game on a very efficient 40% from the field, 85.1% from the FT line, and 35% from behind the arc. EKU is 5-0 in their last 5 games with wins over the #3 seed FGCU 2x and a win over #1 seed Lipscomb.
When people talk about getting hot at the right time, there is northing more important than that in college ball. The Colnels have won their last 5 games by an average margin of 12.5 points per game. EKU would have to face off against Lipscomb in their home gym on 3/6 if they are able to get passed Jacksonville on Monday. George Kimble averaged 30/6/2 against Jacksonville in two game this season.
The biggest issue that EKU is going to have is that outside of George Kimble III, they have Devonte Blanton as a scoring threat and thats it. Outside of Blanton and Kimble, the scoring drops off dramatically for the Colnels. Blanton/Kimbell account for 45% of the Colnels scoring this season. If one or both of those guys happen to have a bad shooting night, the Dark Horse bid is all but dried up.
While there is still so much that lies ahead for conference tournaments, March Madness, and beyond. I am so excited for what is to come for College basketball as a whole. The landscape is changing dramatically, and for the better in my opinion. Kids are staying in school longer, smaller universities are getting bigger name teams to play them, and more games are being shown on national television. Whether you like college athletics or not, you have to admit that March Madness is the best time of year for all sports!
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